• analysis of macroeconomic development scenarios, modelling and forecasting of energy demand;

• analysis of medium- and long-term energy supply scenarios using widely approved optimisation models;

• environmental impacts of the energy sector, analysis of pollution reduction technologies and implementation of environment protection policies;

• energy management and marketing research;

• generalization of energy restructuring and liberalization experience in the European Union and Central and East European countries and its application implementing reforms in the Lithuanian energy sector;

• development of energy information system, collection of statistical data on the energy sector development in Lithuania and worldwide.

 

In 2008 the Laboratory completed state funded scientific research project Investigation of Distributed Energy Generation Development, where issues relevant for the energy sector development were analysed. The following issues were discussed in the project:

 

• common overview of distributed energy generation (merits and drawbacks of small capacity energy generation resources, issues of connecting them to the network);

• characteristics of distributed electricity generation in Lithuania and factors affecting introduction of small scale producers into the market and demands of applying management tools;

• analysis of directive on the promotion of cogeneration development, issues of connecting cogeneration power plants to the network, ways of removing development barriers;

• recommendations for overcoming technical, business and regulation barriers of distributed energy generation development;

• power sector development model, developed by applying MESSAGE software and supplemented by new linear programming solutions, which enable modeller to perform rather exhaustive and correct simulation of operation regimes of wind power plants and hydro power plants;

• modelling principles of heat supply schemes in the sector of private houses and wider utilization of renewable energy sources and generalized results of optimisation calculations;

• analysis of probable international climate change regimes after the Kyoto protocol, assessment of their impact on the amounts of greenhouse gas emitted into the environment and characteristics of indicator system of sustainable energy development;

• principles of natural gas supply modelling and assessment of pressure in critical points of the Lithuanian gas supply system, obtained by applying STANET software package.

 

In the completed state funded scientific research project Development of Methodology for the Evaluation of Safety and Reliability of Energy Supply to Lithuania energy safety estimation methods were developed, mathematical models were formed and interruptions of the Lithuanian energy system were simulated.

 

State funded scientific research project Application of Best-estimate Methodology for Process Modelling of Technical, Natural and Social Systems was further continued together with colleagues from the Laboratory of Nuclear Installation Safety and the Laboratory of Hydrology. In this project, the principles of best-estimate methodology application were discussed, the revised assumptions on electricity demand forecasting and expected changes in electricity demand in different branches of Lithuanian economy were presented.

 

 

The Laboratory continued its successful cooperation with the Lithuanian Ministry of Economy. The Laboratory won the tender and carried out applied research project Analysis of Technical and Economic Indicators of the Lithuanian Energy Sector during the Period of 2000–2007, Comparison of the Respective Indicators of the EU Member States and their Publication. In this project, the development trends of the Lithuanian energy sector and its branches for the period 2000–2007 were analysed, a comparative analysis of major economic and energy indicators of other EU member states was carried out, general production and consumption balance of different fuel and energy forms in Lithuania for the period 2000–2007 was presented. The indicators that define the Lithuanian energy sector development were compared with respective indicators in Latvia and Estonia, the publication Lietuvos Energija 2007 was prepared.

 

Significant task had to be solved with approaching shutdown of Ignalina NPP. In accordance with agreement with SC Lietuvos Energija, scientific research project Assessment Study of the Consequences of Ignalina NPP Operation Shutdown on Lithuanian Economic Safety from the Year 2010 was carried out. Analysis of the current status of the Lithuanian energy sector was presented, threats of Ignalina NPP shutdown and scenarios of the energy sector development were analysed in the project. Based on modelling of various scenarios and performed analysis of obtained results, expected changes in electricity generation and fuel, used for production of electricity and heat, as well as primary energy balance were summarized, forecast of electricity production price and impact of electricity price increase on country’s gross domestic product and inflation were presented. Measures were proposed to mitigate negative consequences of Ignalina NPP shutdown, detailed characteristics of Ignalina NPP safety status was presented. In accordance with agreement with the Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, scientific research project Assessment of the Lithuanian Energy Sector after the Year 2009 was carried out. The following results of performed analysis were presented in the project: balance of electricity generation capacities and demand by the year 2020; forecast of electricity consumption in branches of the country’s economy; fuel availability and its possible structure; electricity price; environment pollution change and other indicators of the energy sector.

 

Research results were used by the Commission of the Government of the Republic of Lithuania to analyse energy supply issues after the year 2009 and estimate country’s possibilities to take the responsibility regarding climate change mitigation and change in the amount of emitted greenhouse gas after shutdown of Ignalina NPP.

 

 

 

Continuing cooperation with SC Lietuvos Energija, scientific research project Updating of Perspective Development Mathematical Model of the Lithuanian Power System, Taking into Account New Trends in the Baltic Region and Investigation of Capacity and Energy Balances for the Period 2010–2050 was completed. In this project the following results were presented: analysis of gross domestic product changes and electricity consumption tendencies in the Baltic countries and Poland; updated mathematical model for analysis of the power system development; modelling principles of electricity and heat supply from combined heat and power plants in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, as well as modelling of high voltage electricity transmission network and medium voltage transmission- distribution grid; modelling peculiarities of interconnections with power systems of the third countries; forecast of fuel and energy price variation; balances of electricity and capacities in Baltic countries and Poland and scenarios of the amount of CO² emitted into the atmosphere.

 

 

Participation in the international programmes

 

In 2008, two EU Sixth Framework Programme projects were completed: Coordination Action to Consolidate RTD Activities for Large-scale Integration of DER into the European Electricity Market (SOLID-DER)(experience accumulated in the EU countries was generalized in the project, advantages of distributed generation sources as well as issues of their connection to the networks were revealed, recommendations were provided how to overcome economical, technical and regulation barriers and how to integrate more quickly small scale plants into power system) and Cost Assessment of Sustainable Energy Systems (CASES) (in this project, applying EcoSence model, external energy generation costs were determined for main Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian power plants). Important EU Seventh Framework Programme project Probabilistic Long-Term Assessment of New Energy Technology Scenarios PLANETS was launched. The objective of this project is to determine scenarios of new most attractive technologies development in the EU countries by the year 2050, which satisfy the priorities of the EU energy policy and objectives of sustainable development.

 

Relevant questions regarding Lithuanian energy sector development, including aspects of wider use of renewable energy sources, were analysed in the following international projects of Intelligent Energy – Europe: European Tracking System for Electricity (E-TRACK-II), Determination of Milestones of European Policy Future of Electricity Production Using Renewable Energy Sources (FUTURES-e), Sustainable Energy in New Building-market Introduction of Feasibility Studies (SENTRO), Investments in RES Heating Systems through Direct Tax Measures (REFUND+), and Policy Development for Improving RES-H/C Penetration in European Member States (RES-H Policy).

 

Two projects were prepared in accordance with agreements with the EU Energy and Transport Directorate: Analysis of Achieving National and Community Objectives for Year 2010 of Directive 2001/77/EC (PROGRESS), Employment and Economic Growth Impacts of Sustainable Energies in the European Union (EMPLOYRES).

 

Project Strategies of Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Scenarios of Energy Development coordinated by the IAEA was continued. International climate change regimes after the Kyoto protocol were analysed and requirements of greenhouse gas reduction for Lithuania for the period 2020 and 2050 in accordance with different international climate mitigation regimes were determined in the project. In 2008, new project Comparative Analysis of the Storage of Nuclear Waste and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) coordinated by the IAEA was launched.

 

Experience gained in the Laboratory was used at the international level in preparing:

 

• Specialists from Ethiopia and South Africa to model scenarios of the energy sector development (Dr. A. Galinis participated in IAEA training courses as an expert delegated by this Agency, responsible for application of MESSAGE model to solve tasks of long-term energy planning);

• Report on Lithuanian greenhouse gas inventory in the energy sector for secretariat of the United Nations Framework Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) and progress report of implementation of Kyoto requirements;

• Implementing strategy of sustainable development for Kazakhstan (Dr. D. Štreimikienė was responsible for selecting measures for sustainable development strategy);

• Centralized review of greenhouse gas inventories in Russia, Ukraine, Finland and Italy (Dr. I. Konstantinavičiūtė).

 

 

 

On the 22nd of April, at the premises of JSC Lietuvos Energija, the Laboratory organized a National seminar Role of Distributed Energy Generation in the European Union and Baltic Countries, which was attended by the specialists from Denmark, Spain, Latvia, and representatives from 17 Lithuanian energy companies and organizations. This seminar was organized on the basis of Sixth Framework Programme project Coordination Action to Consolidate RTD Activities for Large-scale Integration of DER into the European Electricity Market.

 

Dr. Dalia Štreimikienė was granted the professor educational title of social sciences by Vilnius University.

 

In 2008, researchers of the Laboratory participated in the conferences in Germany, Japan, Latvia, Malta, Spain, Turkey, USA and other countries, where 25 papers were presented. Researchers of the Laboratory published 16 scientific articles in Lithuanian and international journals and proceedings of international conferences (5 of them are indexed by Information Sciences Institute).