– analysis of macroeconomic development scenarios, modelling and forecasting of energy demand;
– analysis of medium- and long-term energy supply scenarios using widely approved optimization models;
– evaluation of environmental impact of the energy sector, analysis of pollution reduction technologies and implementation of environment protection policies;
– energy management and marketing research;
– research of efficiency of support means for renewable energy sources;
– generalization of the energy sector restructuring and liberalization experience in the European Union and Central and East European countries and its application implementation of reforms in the Lithuanian energy sector;
– development of energy information system, collection of statistical data on the energy sector development in Lithuania and worldwide.
In 2014, implementation of a long-term program of institutional research and experimental (social, cultural) development Economic and sustainability analysis for the energy sector development has continued in co-operation with the experts of Laboratory for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency and Laboratory of Systems Control and Automation.
In the long-term perspective, an ambitious objective was set to solve the following tasks:
1) to develop a theory of harmonious progress in the energy sector on the basis of sustainable development and interrelations with knowledge-based economy concepts;
2) to analyze possibilities of perspective development in the Lithuanian energy sector and prepare recommendations related to rational directions of perspective technical development of the energy sector, changes in fuel and energy balance, environmental factors;
3) to form methodological basis for the assessment of efficiency of sustainable energy development promotion measures in municipalities, to evaluate the efficiency of already applied and proposed new support measures;
4) to investigate possibilities of synchronous operation of the Lithuanian power system with ENTSO-E, taking into account the perspective development of generating capacities.
While implementing the second task in 2014, the investigations aimed at expansion of modelling base for the energy sector development and solution of specific tasks were continued in the Laboratory. Experience in the previously conducted analysis of the energy sector development was efficiently applied in performing research on perspective development of the Lithuanian energy sector. At this stage of research, the structure of a mathematical model for perspective development and functional analysis of the energy sector was formed; it assessed internal and external relations, energy policies, environmental restrictions, and external factors. The most important results enabling to perform a comprehensive analysis of the Lithuanian energy sector development in a long-term perspective are as follows:
• A mathematical model was prepared, which integrally describes development of power system, district heat supply system and fuel supply system as well change of final energy demand in a long-term perspective, including their seasonal, weekly, and daily variations;
• The model allows determining economically most efficient heat production technologies in individual cities (from a large number of existing, modernized, and new), the type and amount of used fuel, capacity of heat and electricity production, ensuring the necessary reserve capacities and without violating environmental restrictions;
• The model allows determining optimal structure of the generating capacities in the power system and their utilization by evaluating expedience of electricity and reserve capacities exchange with individual foreign countries, which is determined by the needs of electricity markets in neighbouring countries (export from Lithuania), possibilities of supply (import to Lithuania), electricity prices, capacity of interconnections, etc.;
• Fuel supply to power plants and heat plants is modelled taking into consideration the existing and feasible in the future supply infrastructure (capacities of pipelines and terminals, natural gas storage, etc.), prices of the supplied fuel and volumes of the consumed fuel. The rationality of usage of local and renewable energy sources for individual heat and electricity supply technologies is established taking into consideration the potential and prices of these sources;
• The information input database was updated and expanded: the recent information on consumption of primary energy sources in Lithuania, EU countries and worldwide and in particular tendencies in changes of prices of electricity and natural gas, development of technologies for electricity and heat production, their accessibility, technical and economic indicators is accumulated.
An optimization model prepared by applying MESSAGE software package enables researchers to determine from the set of all available and probable future technologies the optimal structure of capacities for generation of electricity and district heat, types and amounts of primary energy sources, volumes of electricity and heat production, volumes of import-export of electricity and reserve capacities. The determined mix of energy supply and transformation technologies meets the foreseen country’s final energy demand at the least cost (and at the same time at least prices for end-users) in the long-term perspective. The energy sector development was modelled over the period up to year 2050, taking into consideration operation conditions and efficiency of different types of power plants at different operation regimes, adequately balancing production and consumption of electricity and heat in Lithuania and flows of electricity imported from networks of Scandinavian countries and continental Europe as well as from third countries or exported to neighbouring markets.
The optimization model enables to analyse several tens of possible scenarios for development of the energy sector, which are formed by evaluating strategic goals for the Lithuanian energy sector development, requirements determined by the EU directives and international commitments, probable changes in energy markets of neighbouring countries and in structures of generating capacities, achievements defined by the Lithuanian energy security or other criteria, etc.
The project funded by the Research Council of Lithuania Assessment of potential for greenhouse gas emission reduction in households in Lithuania
(project supervisor D. Štreimikienė) was successfully completed. Energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in households were analyzed in the project and basic social-economic and technological as well as cultural factors influencing greenhouse gas emissions in households were identified. A monograph Greenhouse gas emission reduction in households
summarizing the results of the project was prepared and published. The monograph summarizes general social, economic, and behavioural factors, causing greenhouse gas emissions in households, and evaluates the potential of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions due to behavioural innovations in this sector. The conducted investigations and the obtained results may be useful for researchers, working in area of environment and energy as well as climate change mitigation, and for policy makers as well as for the bachelor and master degree students studying subjects directly related to environmental policy and energy policy.
The project External economic effects of development of energy sector: quantitative assessment launched in 2014 by the groups of scientists of the Research Council of Lithuania is significant for confirmation of qualification of the researchers of the Laboratory. It is sought to prepare in this project a system of quantitative assessment for external economic effects of perspective development of the energy sector and assess external economic cost and benefits of the Lithuanian energy sector development scenarios. In the project, the assessment of directly measured economic effects and those depending on the specifics of technologies is integrated in models applied for energy planning and formulating development scenarios, whereas modelling of general economic equilibrium is used to assess the intersectoral relations in a broader way. Such analysis enables researchers to cover changing relations with other branches of the economy due to structural changes in the energy sector. The ongoing project will broaden the knowledge about external economic effects of the energy sector development and will significantly contribute to economic energy planning and enhancement of methods applied in analysis of energy and economy relations: solutions of modelling, enabling to reflect better economic variables and restrictions in energy planning models, will be created; methods for assessment economic effects of perspective development of the energy sector, enabling to assess direct and indirect as well as induced effects of perspective development of the energy sector, will be developed and adjusted to the Lithuanian environment.
Research papers for country’s economy
Under the agreement with the Government Office of the Republic of Lithuania, a study Analysis of the perspective development of Lithuanian energy sector taking into consideration EU strategic initiatives in the field of energy was prepared. Rapid development of the Lithuanian economy, the increased dependence on the import of energy sources from a single country, constantly renewed EU energy policy and directives consolidating new guidelines, the increased strategic importance of integration of Lithuanian energy systems into EU systems and in the created common EU energy market, high prices on imported fossil fuel in world markets, intensive strengthening of the role of renewable energy sources in the Lithuanian energy balance, and tense geopolitical situation of the country force to adjust the Lithuanian energy policy and update the National Energy Independence Strategy approved by the Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania on June 26, 2012 by resolution No. XI-2133.
Diagram of the main fuels and energy flows in Lithuania in 2013, ktoe
Carrying out specified contractual duties, the interim report Feasibility assessment of development of high-efficiency cogeneration and district heat supply and recommendations for the National program for development of heat sector in 2014-2020 was prepared. District heat supply system was addressed as an integral and inseparable part of the energy sector, tightly related to power system by technological and energy flow relations, fuel supply (especially natural gas), and other systems. Perspective development and functioning of district heating supply systems were analyzed by applying a mathematical model created for this purpose. Complex modelling enabled to determine most efficient heat generation technologies in the largest cities (evaluating the volume of investments necessary for their installation, constant and variable operating costs, possible fuel types and efficiency factors, the life time of technologies and their construction period, environmental characteristics), capacities of heat and electricity generation in thermal power plants, the volume of fuel consumption, the volume of necessary investment and other indicators.
The final report presents: analysis of geopolitical environment; strategic goals of the energy sector; scenarios of economic development and perspective demand for electricity and district heat as well as direct fuel consumption in branches of the economy related to economic growth; forecast of fuel prices; analysis of the present state of the energy sector; modelling concept of its development and long-term functioning; directions of development of power system and district heating systems; dynamics of generating capacities, electricity and heat production and changes in structure of fuel consumption; volumes of investments; emissions of pollutants; principles of distribution of the European Union support and rational support volumes for individual technologies.
Based on a thorough and comprehensive analysis of scenarios for development of the Lithuanian energy sector and summary of optimization results, an updated project of the country’s National Energy Strategy was prepared and submitted to the Government Office; the project defines the main provisions of the State on development of the energy sector until year 2030 and guidelines until year 2050. These provisions and guidelines are justified by the aspects of enhancement of economy, energy security, environmental protection and management improvement, fully combining them with the needs of the State and the recent international requirements. The strategy identifies the ways and means of energy supply that ensure the strategic security by minimizing negative impact of dependence on the dominant energy source supplier.
Diagram of renewable energy sources flows in 2013, ktoe
Under the agreement with JSCFortum Heat Lietuva, a scientific research Technical-economic assessment of modernization projects of heat production and supply in the integrated network of the Kaunas city has been conducted. The evaluation of the existing state of district heat supply and directions of development of existing and potential new heat producers in legal, technical, and economic terms is presented in the final report. Performing investigations under this agreement, the analysis of tendency in changes of heat consumption and of influence of fuel market development on district heating supply system in the city of Kaunas was carried out, a model of heat market was proposed, the state of heat supply pipelines was evaluated, the methodology applied to the analysis was presented and the assumptions were described – forecast of heat demand and fuel prices, possible options of heat sources development. Alternatives of the actually existing or planned new generation sources in district heating network of the Kaunas city are analysed in the study. However, determination of the optimal long-term directions of development of integrated heat network and heat production sources, which do not only encompass heat supply to consumers, but also supply of electricity and other energy sources, as well as overall social and economic benefit, was not foreseen in the contract. The essential result of this investigation is analysis of scenarios specified by the client and their thorough assessment.
The annual issue of statistical data Energy in Lithuania 2013 was published and transferred to the Ministry of Energy. This issue presents the latest systemized information describing tendencies in the development of the Lithuanian energy sector and its branches in 2010–2013 as well as detailed energy balances and the key indicators of the national energy sector. Based on the latest information presented in databases of statistical departments of the Baltic States, the issue presents statistical data of 2012 and 2013 on Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian total primary and final energy consumption, electricity and district heat production and consumption in branches of economy, growth of gross domestic product (GDP) as well as comparative indicators defining current status of the Lithuanian energy sector and the national economy. The issue presents the amounts of greenhouse gas emissions in 1990 and 2012 and their structure by the sectors in the countries that signed Annex 1 to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol.
The comparative analysis of indicators of the EU-28 countries, the largest world countries and countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development as well as summarized general world economic and energy indicators (GDP, energy consumption per capita, energy intensity, etc.) for the years 2011 and 2012 are presented in the publication. This analysis was prepared following the latest data and methodology published by the International Energy Agency. According to methodological principles of this agency, in electricity consumption in all the countries listed in the publication, losses in the network are not assessed, and final energy consumption includes non-energy use.
The publication summarizes the changes in the national economy and the energy sector. After a dramatic decline in 2009 (-14.8%) Lithuanian GDP has been recovering; over the period 2010–2013, it was increasing approximately by 3.7% annually. In 2013, the country’s GDP in chain-linked volume amounted to 110 billion LTL (base year – 2010) or 37.2 thousand LTL per capita. In 2013, the primary energy consumption decreased by 5.5% and comprised 6.98 million toe. The final energy consumption for energy needs in branches of the economy decreased by 2.3% and comprised 4.73 million toe, final electricity consumption increased by 0.4% and comprised 8.96 TWh. In 2013, the primary energy consumption per unit of GDP dropped by 8.5%, whereas intensity of final energy consumed in branches of the economy decreased by 5.3%.
The publication Energy in Lithuania 2013 was prepared after comprehensive analysis of data presented in databases of Departments of Statistics of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia and international statistical data publications. The information invoked in the preparation of the publication was taken from the publications of the country’s Department of Statistics (Fuel and energy balance – 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013) and databases, State Prices and Energy Control Commission, and annual reports of energy companies and other institutions as well as from information publications and databases prepared by international organizations (International Energy Agency, Eurostat).
Under the agreement with the Ministry of Environment, a scientific project National Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory for Energy Sector Preparation 2014 was carried out. While implementing the above-mentioned project, a National greenhouse gas emission inventory for the energy sector for the period 1990–2012 was prepared following the requirements of the European Parliament and Council decision No. 280/2004/EC on the mechanism for monitoring of greenhouse gas emissions in the European Communities and implementing the Kyoto Protocol and the methodology of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Dr. I. Konstantinavičiūtė, being a member of the National greenhouse gas emission inventory preparation commission, National climate change committee and NER 3000 financial instrument project selection commission, actively contributed to seeking the solutions in this field of research.
Participation in international programs
In 2014, a three-year long project Sustainable development analysis of Lithuanian renewable and other energy sources, earth, and water use
coordinated by the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA) was completed. This research provides guidelines for sustainable development of the Lithuanian energy sector, earth, and water use. Usage of renewable energy sources (RES) has influence on sustainable development since it enables to reduce negative environmental impact, promotes national and regional economic development, determines attractive energy prices, creates additional job positions, etc.
Country’s energy security (ensuring energy demand for socially acceptable price) is also an inherent part of sustainable economic and social policy. In order to implement the objectives, it was sought to encompass and analyse the entire chain of energy flows, starting from the use of natural energy resources and finishing with separate energy types obtained from these resources seeking to meet society demands, including the use of non-renewable energy sources and assessment of their environmental impact, taking into account country’s international commitments as well as strategic objectives and aiming to supply energy for consumers at possibly lowest prices. Taking into account the above-mentioned criteria, an optimization model realized by application of MESSAGE software package was created.
Relevant for Lithuania issues of the energy sector development as well as wider deployment of RES and aspects of increase of energy consumption efficiency are analysed in international projects of Intelligent Energy Europe Program. In 2014, two projects Policy Dialogue on the assessment and convergence of RES policy in EU Member States (DIA-CORE) and Monitoring of energy efficiency in the EU (ODYSEE MURE 2012) have continued.
By the project Policy Dialogue on the assessment and convergence of RES policy in EU Member States (DIA-CORE),
it is aimed to ensure the continuity of RES support schemes assessment and to develop a productive discussion on future support policy for RES use in electricity, heat production, and transport sectors. The project coordinator is the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI (Germany). Project partners: Vienna University of Technology, Energy Economy Group (Austria), Ecofys (Netherlands), Eclareon (Germany), National Technical University of Athens (Greece), CEPS (Belgium), DIW Berlin (Germany), Utrecht University (Netherlands), and AXPO (Austria).
During implementation of the project Monitoring of energy efficiency in the EU (ODYSEE MURE 2012,
it is aimed to conduct a thorough monitoring of energy consumption efficiency and policy measures for increasing the efficiency of energy consumption in all EU countries and in all sectors of the economy. Project coordinator is ADEME (France). 32 partners from all EU countries participate in this project.
Experience gained in the Laboratory was widely used on the international level:
• Preparing specialists for modelling of the energy sector development in trainings organized in Austria and Sweden – Dr. A. Galinis, as an expert delegated by the IAEA and responsible for application of the MESSAGE model in solving tasks of long-term energy planning, shared his experience and performed practical training for experts of modelling, involved in program for long-term development of the energy sector;
• Modelling specialists carrying out practical training in Tunisia (Regional course for West Africa), Cameroon (Regional course for Central Africa), and Uganda (National course) – the experience was conveyed by the IAEA delegated expert Dr. D. Tarvydas.
• Analyzing 2014–2015 calls for energy research Program Horizon2020 – Dr. D. Štreimikienė participated in meetings of Energy advisors group of the European Commission Program Horizon 2020.
Employees of the Laboratory of Energy Systems Research and colleagues who worked in the Laboratory before
In 2014, researchers of the Laboratory improved their qualifications:
• On July 2–12, 2014 Dr. E. Norvaiša participated in the seminar organized by IAEA on the sustainable energy development, energy strategies prepared by European countries, and the role of nuclear energy in present and future balance of electricity production. The seminar was combined with the international nuclear engineering conference ICONE-22, where experts of nuclear energy field from various countries presented papers, which provided opportunities to learn more about development of nuclear energy worldwide.
• On November 18–26, 2014 Dr. E. Norvaiša participated in the course Sustainable Energy Solutions organized by the United Nations Industry Development Organization (UNIDO). This course provided knowledge about the essential factors that have great influence on development of sustainable energy on the global scale. The program of the course consisted of lectures delivered by lecturers, a field trip to a model region of development of sustainable energy Güssing (Austria), information about application of the best examples of policies and solutions for development of sustainable energy in various regions worldwide, development trends of technologies using most advanced renewable energy sources. Participants of the course had to perform various specific tasks, related to energy development challenges in different regions of the world, present possible methods for solving specific issues. In his paper on the situation of sustainable energy development in Lithuania, E. Norvaiša described to participants of the course scenarios of long-term energy development, renewable energy problems and perspectives.
In 2014, the researchers of the Laboratory participated in international conferences in Germany, Italy, Philippines, Poland, Spain, Turkey and other countries, where eight papers were presented. The researchers of the Laboratory published twelve scientific articles in Lithuanian and foreign journals, in proceedings of international conferences, etc. (six of those in journals listed in Thomson-Reuters Web of Science Core Collection database).