The goal of the Climate and Energy Systems project is to look at climate impacts closer in time and assess the development of the Nordic electricity system for the next 20-30 years. The project addressed how the conditions for production of renewable energy in the Nordic and Baltic area might change due to global warming. It was focused on the potential production and the future safety of the production systems as well as uncertainties. The key objectives are summarized as:
- Understanding of the natural variability and predictability of climate and renewable energy systems at different scales in space and time.
- Assessment of the risks due to changes in probabilities and nature of extreme events.
- Assessment of the risks and opportunities due to changes in production of renewable energy.
- Development of guiding principles for decisions under climate variability and change.
- Development of adaptation strategies.
Scientists from LEI participated in activity of two work groups “Statistical analysis” and “Hydropower, hydrology”. The Statistical Analysis Group had as its principal objective the analysis of variability in streamflow, with a focus on flood frequency and intensity, and on drought. The specific objectives of Lithuanian scientists are as follows:
- Creation of database of streamflow records for Lithuania;
- Analysis of trends in flood frequency and intensity and in drought occurrence based on historical data;
- Evaluation of the variability in regional index series of precipitation (P), temperature (T) and river discharge (Q).
- Analysis of the cyclic behaviour of T, P and Q in Lithuania.
The contribution from Lithuanian Energy Institute in the Hydropower – Hydrology group was focused on the risk analysis of hydropower system in the climate change conditions. The object of a case study is the Kaunas hydropower system (Kaunas Hydropower Plant, Kruonis Pump Storage Plant) on the Nemunas River. The catchment model HBV will be used to evaluate the Nemunas river runoff due to climate change impact. Several climate scenarios from regional climate models will be used for forecasting of the Nemunas river runoff (the control period will be 1971-2000 and climate change periods will be 2010-39 and 2070-2099). Results of the modelled Nemunas river runoff according to climate scenarios will be used for estimation of potential changes in hydropower production of Kaunas hydropower system.
Total cost: 300 000 EUR (LEI part: 15 000 EUR)
Coordinator: Árni Snorrason, NEA, Iceland
- CICERO, Center for Klimaforskning, Norway
- Denmark Meteorological Institute DONG Energy, Denmark
- Ea Energianalyse A/S, Denmark
- Elforsk, Sweden
- Finnish Energy Industries, Finland
- Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Finland
- Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Finland
- Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Denmark
- HugurAx Software Solutions, Iceland
- Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Agency, Latvia
- Icelandic Meteorological Office, Iceland
- Institute of Meteorological Research, Iceland
- IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Sweden
- Lithuanian Energy Institute, Lithuania
- National Energy Authority, Iceland
- National Power Company, Iceland
- Norwegian Meteorological Institute (NMI), Norway
- Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE), Norway
- Optensys Energiaalys, Sweden
- Riso National Laboratory, Denmark
- Statkraft, Norway
- Stockholm University, Sweden
- Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sweden
- Tallinn University of Technology, Estonia
- University of Joensuu, Finland
- University of Copenhagen, Denmark
- University of Edinburgh, Scotland
- University of Helsinki, Finland
- University of Iceland, Iceland
- University of Joensuu, Finland
- Voeikov Main Geophysical Obs. (VMGO), Russia
- VTT, Finland